Market Insight Newsletter of Memory CPU HDD-Dec-2021

Dear customers and vendors, welcome to the Market Insights-Newsletter from Quiksol that delivers timely and relevant market intelligence report to the electronics supply chain industry. We hope you find this issue of Market Insights valuable, and we welcome your feedback at Quiksol@quiksol.com.cn
Brands: Micron, Samsung, Hynix, Nanya, Kioxia, MXIC, Winbond, CPU, HDD

 

Memory spot market update:

Overview: Looking back at the memory market of the whole year 2021 in the last month, we can easily find that the memory market price rose in the first half and fell in the second half of the yearwhich has begun to fall since July. After a sluggish market that lasted for nearly half a year, DRAM stopped falling, stabilized at the end of November, and the prices have risen slightly since December. It may be because that most of the market inventory has been cleared at a loss not long ago, resulting in the limited inventory of spot vendors. In addition, most of memory manufacturers have completed their annual performance targets in the last month, so the number of stocks releasing has been decreased, which will cause prices to rise once there has demand. However, some terminal demand does not seem to be strong, and they are still waiting for the future market trend which is not so clear right now. It is recommended not to blindly chase the rise or fall. The future trend of the market still needs to be judged according to the terminal demand. At present, Micron EMMC, Nor flash, and Cypress Nor flash are sill facing big shortage. In addition, Micron SDRAM is also facing shortage due to the older process and less manufacture capacity allocation  recently.

DDR4: Since the manufacturer lowered the price of DDR4 in the fourth quarter. Spot vendors are currently conservative and dare not keep more inventories, they cleared their inventories at low prices. However, after the end of November, the price stopped falling and stabilized. In December, the price rose slightly. The current spot market volume seems to be less than before. The price of Samsung DDR4 4Gb is around US$2.20, and the price of 8Gb has risen from US$3.50 to around US$3.70 last month. The price of Hynix DDR4 4Gb is around US$2.50, and the price of 8Gb is around US$3.80. At present, the customer's willingness to buy goods is still weak, and it may only rise for a short time. It is necessary to pay close attention to the dynamics of upstream and downstream supply and demand. Micron DDR4 4Gb is around US$2.45, and the price of 8Gb is around US$3.80. The supply is sufficient, and the current demand is mostly on an order-to-order basis.

DDR3: Recently, the price of DDR3 has been relatively stable, and the market demand has been active. It is well known that most of memory manufacturers will reduce DDR3 production next year and shift their production capacity to other products. Due to the decline of DDR3 in the second half of this year, coupled with next year's production and other news, the industry is more optimistic about the DDR3 market. One of the most popular parts of Hynix DDR3 4Gb EFR-RDC, the price has been maintained at about US$2.40 recently, and there is not much supply at present. The price of Samsung DDR3 4Gb has recently risen to around US$2.40, and the stock is not large, so it is expected to remain stable for the time being. The price of Micron DDR3 4Gb has been slightly reduced recently, but it is still maintained at US$3.xx. It is said that the manufacturer is not willing to lower the book price due to the small inventory of themselves and the high price that European and American customers can accept. DDR3 2Gb prices eased slightly at the end of last month which is the end of Micron's quarter, and are now better than other memory brands. For Nanya, DDR3 prices showed little change compared to last month. DDR3 4Gb prices rose from US$2.32 to US$2.37.

Nand Flash: The supply of Micron Nand flash is relatively good and the price is stable. As for Winbond, we recently heard that there is some transactions in the market for 1Gb Nand flash, indicating that terminal demand is gradually releasing, and we hope that customers will seize the opportunity of low prices to stock up as soon as possible. As for Macronix, some items will soon be discontinued and replaced. It is recommended that customers need to keep inventory before LTB to prevent subsequent out-of-stocks in the future.

Nor Flash: Micron Nor flash is still facing big shortage. While the price is not as high as the previous few months, the current lead time is still long. Once the stock is available, customers will soon buy the goods. For Winbond, the price of each capacity slightly lower which support is much better. Welcome to any inquire for Winbond Nor flash, it is a good time to do cost saving. For Macronix, the prices of general items are lower recently while the price and lead time of partial items are still not optimistic.  For Cypress, the official delivery lead time is still very long and the market price remains high. Small and medium-sized customers have been unable to continue production due to their inability to afford crazy high prices.

EMMC: The price of Samsung EMMC is stable and much better than other memory brands recently. The supply of manufacture is limited. Samsung EMMC has fallen sharply in the second half of this year, which price is  at a relatively low point now. It may rise a little once the demand increases. It is recommended to buy some safety stocks appropriately. Kioxia EMMC is similar to Samsung nowadays, which price is slightly higher than Samsung and the transaction is difficult. In contrast, Micron's EMMC is still in short supply and the price has been increasing to a very high level. Although most of customers can accept such high price, the stocks are still moving very fast. Customers may make a quick purchase decision for EMMC stocks offer. Because the price is crazy and the stocking risk is relatively high, the EMMC transaction is mostly based on exact demand and target prices.

Memory Module: Recently, spot vendors have strengthened their willingness to stock up due to the price stop falling. Not long ago, the price of PC memory module fell to the historic lowest price. Mainly because that brokers cut prices to clear their inventories, result in a large amount of goods to flow into the market. No one is willing to stock up. It is basically difficult to get low quotations at present, and spot vendors are also willing to buy at a higher price. Demand for server memory modules is still sluggish, and terminal factories seem to have more inventory to be digested. 32GB 2933 can have some demand, the price is a few dollars which speed is higher than 3200, you can pay more attention due to the less inventory. It is expected that prices will continue to fall slowly in the near future, and it is necessary to wait for terminal demand to improve.

SSD: The SSD market has been relatively stable recently, The main demand is still reflected in SATA hard drives. Since the upstream supply is limited, the upstream quotations have increased slightly since the beginning of December compared with the end of the last month, but they still need to wait for market acceptance. The price of consumer hard drives is still falling recently, and the demand is weak. We can only reduce prices to win customer orders. The current situation is relatively stable. At present, the market for SSD is difficult to reverse, and it is more likely to fall slowly in the near future.  

Please take below tables as reference:

Table1-Dram spot price

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Table2-NAND Flash spot price

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Table3-Memory module spot price

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Table4-SSD spot price:

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CPU Market

PC CPU: The overall market demand is relatively weak. The prices of most desktops are falling down and some of the mainstream models of the 11th generation products as well. The old PC CPU items, such as i3-6100, i3-8100, the demand is also weak, the price is also dropping. The price of i3-6100 is US$115.00; The price of i3-8100 is US$105.00. The seven series products- i7-6700, there is not much stocks of this CPU, the shipping price is US$275.00, and we can see from the market, there is many clean pulls of this item, the price nearly US$200.00. The most popular CPU of the desktop is the low-end series. G series products such as G3900, G4900, G4900T, G5400 and G5400T, are still in short supply. The original factory delivery is unstable and the price has risen significantly. The price of G5400 is around US$85.00, but the Intel official price is US$64.00 around.

Serve CPU: Recently, the server CPUs are out of stock. The conventional series 4 series and 6 series are all popular products. 4210 ,4210R ,6230 ,6240 ,6226R, are all the huge shortage items, but recently the price is also in a mess, like 4210R,the price of this item is during US$440.00~US$495.00. These are news that Intel will increase the price of XEON products by 8%~10%, so the price of XEON will be higher in the future, if these parts are your long-time demand, you can keep some stocks in advance. Quiksol can supply some shortage parts: 4210, 4210R, E2278G, if you have demand, please feel free to let us know.

Mobile CPU: On overall, the notebook CPU demand is relatively weak compared to before. The mainstream series of 11-generation products are mostly support by agents, the supply is stable. But the 7th, 8th generation series and the low-end products are actually lacking, the supply is unstable, and the price is slightly higher than the normal price, such as i5-7200U, the normal shipping price is US$170.00, but recently due to out of stocks, and market price is over US $195.00, the OEM customer also have demand, but their target price is US$185.00 around. The low-end mobile CPU, 4205U,5025U is shortage as well, hard to see any stocks, the lead time is up to 6weeks.


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H D D

1. As 2021 is drawing to a close, the overall demand for HDD this year is not optimistic compared to previous years. Although the demand for large-capacity HDD rose suddenly from March to April this year due to the large demand for mining machines, it lasted for about one or two months. This has not caused this year's shipments to be much higher than in previous years.

2. Recently the most of shipments are still concentrated in the enterprise HDD, especially 16TB-18TB, the price is similar to before, the shipping price of 16TB is around US$252.00, and the shipping price of 18TB is around US$290.00. The lead time for lower than 10TB enterprise HDD is tighter again, and the shipment volume is significantly smaller than that of large-capacity HDD. Especially the small capacity of 1TB and 2TB are almost hard to find, and the price has risen a lot. The price of this 2T HUS722T2TALA604 is close to US$120.00, and the stock is very small.

3. In terms of the price, there is still a small price trend, mainly because of the shortage of raw materials, so the manufactories have raised the price accordingly. In addition to the small capacity HDD is still in short supply, so the price will not come down for a while.

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